Why you should delay iOS upgrades

Today is September 9th, 2017 and iOS 11 was released! Yay! This version has several new features that Apple fanboys are going gaga over. It’s exciting, it’s new, and in about a month you should install it on your device. For years I have advocated that major iOS upgrades should be delayed at least 3 weeks. Why? Math.

This simple timeline demonstrates Apple’s history with patches for iOS upgrades:

1.0.1 was released 32 days after 1.0.0. It was a security update.
1.1.1 was released 13 days after 1.1.0. It was a major stability update.
2.0.1 was released 14 days after 2.0.0. It was a major stability update.
2.1.1 was released 3 days after 2.1.0. It was a security update.
3.0.1 was released 44 days after 3.0.0. It was a security update.
3.1.1 was released the same day as 3.1.0. It was a security update.
3.1.2 was released 29 days after 3.1.1. It was a major stability update.
4.0.1 was released 24 days after 4.0.0. It was a major stability update.
4.3.1 was released 16 days after 4.3.0. It was a security update.
5.0.1 was released 29 days after 5.0.0. It was a security update.
5.1.1 was released 61 days after 5.1.0. It was a security update.
6.0.1 was released 61 days after 6.0.0. It was a security update.
6.1.1 was released 9 days after 6.1.0. It was a major stability update.
7.0.1 was released 1 day after 7.0.0. It was a security update.
7.0.2 was released 7 days after 7.0.1. It was a security update.
7.1.1 was released 43 days after 7.1.0. It was a major stability update.
8.0.1 was released 7 days after 8.0.0. It was a security update – and was so bad they pulled it.
8.0.2 was released 1 day after 8.0.1. It was a major stability update.
8.1.1 was released 28 days after 8.1.0. It was a security update.
8.4.1 was released 44 days after 8.4.0. It was a security update.
9.0.2 was released 14 days after 9.0.0. It was a security update.
9.2.1 was released 133 days after 9.2.0. It was a security update.
9.3.1 was released 10 days after 9.3.0. It was a major stability update.
10.0.2 was released 10 days after 10.0.0. It was a stability update.
10.1.1 was released 7 days after 10.1.0. It was a security update.
10.2.1 was released 42 days after 10.2.0. It was a security update.
10.3.1 was released 7 days after 10.3.0. It was a security update.

11.0.0 was released today. How long do you think it will be before they release their mandatory security update?

With history as our guide, we can safely assume it’s going to be roughly 26 days before they release whatever security update is required of the first major release of iOS 11.

Looking at the numbers we can also see that fixes for major updates are released on average 21 days after the initial major version (n.0.x), where minor version fixes average closer to 30 days after the release of the minor version (n.n.x). If we remove the outlier (9.2.1) because it’s over 4 months and double any other period, the averages become 20 days for serious patches to major updates and 22 days for serious patches to minor updates. Again: 21 days – three weeks – becomes the minimum average for your safety.

That means you should expect a security update for iOS 11 around October 10th, 2017. Be patient. The privacy you save will be your own.

Regards,

Shawn K. Hall
https://SaferPC.info/
https://12PointDesign.com/

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